CONVERSATIONAL SURVIVOR BIAS

On its surface, the notion of “survivor bias” seems like a GOOD thing: wouldn’t I want to be biased toward the survivors?  Wouldn’t I WANT to only be exposed to those people and ideas that “survived”?  Why would I WANT to hear from the non-survivors?  Because, quite often, we learn MUCH more when we fail than when we succeed.  The classic story that illustrates HOW survivor-bias works is this: in World War II, airplane mechanics observed that planes that returned from battle had a significant amount of bullet holes in their wings, so they concluded that they REALLY needed to reinforce the wings on the planes, since the wings kept getting shot.  Eventually, they realized that, since it was the planes that RETURNED that had these bullet holes, this meant that the planes that got SHOT DOWN where the ones that got shot all over the body of the plane.  Once they reinforced the body…more planes returned.  The mechanics were attempting to learn from the survivors, but instead needed to focus on the planes NOT returning, and, in turn, in conversations regarding physical transformation, WE need to pay less attention to what is being discussed and more attention to what isn’t.

Silly Skynet just kept building Terminators with more left arms

 

Upon writing that, I’m reminded of the Simpson’s exchange on jazz music where Lisa says “You have to listen to the notes she’s not playing” and the response was “I can do that at home”, but stick with me here ardent obscure 90s pop-culture reference fan, because what’s “not being said” happens to be the loudest part of the conversation.  When people successful in the realm of physical transformation get together to discuss said transformation, it’s interesting just how nuanced the discussion becomes.  Dave Tate’s “Table Talk” is a fantastic example of this exact phenomenon: Dave, a multi-decade veteran of the sport of powerlifting, brings on other incredibly accomplished guests in a wide variety of iron sports and other avenues of physical transformation, and they essentially “talk shop” for LONG stretches of time (2-5 hours), letting the conversations just meander with an occasional nudge “back on track” before it devolves yet again.  You can learn SO much from these conversations, pick up some amazing tips and some really fascinating one-offs and quirks from these accomplished individuals…but what you’re NOT going to be able to do is figure out the basics. 

 

Why?  Because they’re not going to TALK about that.  Why?  Because they already KNOW the basics, and they already AGREE on the basics.  The fundamental foundational principles of physical transformation remain constant, unflinching, and unchanging.  You have my 3 principle summary of effort, consistency and time, but it’s been expressed in multiple other instances before, yet, much like the Tao, it’s one of those where the IDEA transcends words but not understanding.  We all “get it”.  Pat Casey bench pressed 615lbs raw in 1967, and just to show he wasn’t a one-off freak of nature, his training partner, Superstar Billy Graham, benched 605.  We’ve KNOWN how to get big and strong for a LONG time, and those principles haven’t changed at all…which is why these bits of conversation “don’t survive”.  Much like how the body of the plane is where the engine and the pilot live, the basics are where physical transformation “lives”, and those people who figure that out and “survive” on the course of physical transformation get to come home with their wings all shot up.

Heavy weights and meatloaf sandwiches: we had it all figured out in the 60s

 

And so many young trainees are those eager airplane mechanics, observing the conversations between these two accomplished trainees and drawing a survivor bias conclusion: “all these guys do is talk about nutritional timing and bar camber angle and exercise frequency and macronutrient ratio and protein powder compositions and pre/prei/post workout nutrition: THAT must be what REALLY matters”.  No you fool: they talk about THESE things because the core principles already survived so there was no need to bring them up any further!  For them, effort, consistency and time are a GIVEN, but for you?  Young trainee, you are but a babe in the woods: you need to cut your teeth first before you start even worrying about this stuff.

 

For what inevitably happens is a trainee will completely flip the 80/20 equation and try to get the majority of their results by focusing on those things that drive the minority of progress.  I am frequently asked questions regarding matters of exercise splits, movement frequency, movement selection, “how to program conditioning”, etc, and I keep coming back and saying “it all works”, much to their complete lack of satisfaction.  It’s the truth!  Your wings can be completely shot up, but as long as your engine is running and your pilot is alive, you’re going to survive this journey.  But, quite frequently, these trainees have exhausted so much of their bandwidth trying to conform to all the little rules and nuances contained in the smallest of details in matters of physical transformation that they run OUT of space for actual effort.  I’ve observed trainees bemoan how they simply don’t have TIME to make sure they’re hitting all muscle groups twice a week for 15-20 working sets per muscle while ensuring they train to absolute failure while ALSO making sure they keep 2 reps in reserve while maintaining proper tempo of 3-1-1-3, so they may as well just quit!  When I reveal to them that they can get bigger and stronger training as infrequently as twice a week, or 3 times every 2 weeks, instead of this liberating them, it just sends them into an even further downward spiral: how can this be!  Why would science lie to me!?

This is about how it looks

 

Dan John is one of the few big names I know of that has managed to make a career out of restating the basics over and over again, and, in turn, he is the ultimate palate cleanser whenever we find ourselves too far down the rabbithole of physical transformation.  “Mass Made Simple”, “Easy Strength”, and his most recent “Armor Building Formula” all reinforce the same basic principles of hard work, consistency and time driving success, as does every line he speaks in his podcast.  “The secret to being a great discuss thrower is to throw 4 times a week, lift weights 3 times a week, and do that for 8 years” is such an excellent prescription for success in just about any physical endeavor.  He’s someone out there that does NOT have a “conversational survivor bias”.  There are, of course, others as well, and I enjoy partaking of them, but I bring it up just to illustrate an example of just WHAT a conversation would appear like IF one were to observe these individuals discussing the fundamentals: ultimately, repetitive and basic.

 

And while we bring up Mass Made Simple, think about it alongside the other fantastic physical transformation protocols: Super Squats, Deep Water, and DoggCrapp for example.  Super Squats is 20 breathing squats for 1 set where the weight goes up each workout, Mass Made Simple keeps the weight at bodyweight but strives to get the reps up to 50, Deep Water keeps the weight AND total reps the same but gets it done in less time (either with reduced rest times or fewer sets), DoggCrapp combines heavy and light work with beating the logbook.  A young, confused trainee might see all those protocols and think they have to combine them ALL in order to get the benefits…but an experienced trainee looks and sees what these have in common: they all make you work REALLY hard in some way, and from that you grow.  What is being said is sets, reps and protocols: what ISN’T being said, because it’s understood, is the effort.

And a little bit of this

 

Pay attention to what is surviving in the conversation and ask yourself what DIDN’T survive.  Look for the non-survivors and learn from them.